Global OTR tyre forecasts agree that the sector is growing, but little else. Estimates of its current value differ by more than US$20 billion, reflecting radically different definitions of what constitutes the market. For tyre businesses, the more useful evidence may be found not in headline forecasts but in where manufacturers are committing capital, capacity and technology.
The global off-the-road tyre market has an unusual problem for an industry supposedly worth billions of dollars: there is remarkably little agreement about how many billions.
Stellar Market Research values the market at US$7.31 billion in 2024 and forecasts a 5.5% compound annual growth rate through 2032. Its published page contains an apparent inconsistency, stating in one prominent passage that the market will reach US$11.22 billion by 2030, while its scope table and FAQ give 2032. Compounding US$7.31 billion at 5.5% for eight years produces approximately US$11.2 billion, supporting the latter date.
The discrepancy is worth noting, but the larger issue is how far Stellar's valuation sits from other estimates. Kings Research puts the 2024 market at US$5.21 billion and forecasts US$7.87 billion by 2032, while MarketsandMarkets forecasts US$5.58 billion by 2032 at a 6.2% CAGR. At the other end of the spectrum, MarkNtel Advisors values the global market at US$26.90 billion in 2025 and US$28.20 billion in 2026, rising to US$37.36 billion by 2032.
These are not rounding differences. They are effectively descriptions of different markets carrying the same OTR label.
Part of the explanation lies in the breadth of off-highway applications. Depending on methodology, an OTR study can extend beyond the giant earthmover tyres associated with open-pit mining into construction machinery, agricultural equipment, industrial vehicles, ports and logistics. Researchers can also draw different boundaries around radial, bias, solid and non-pneumatic products, OE and replacement demand, rim sizes and other categories.
MarkNtel's current definition, for example, includes construction, mining, industrial, agricultural, ports and logistics applications, alongside radial, bias, non-pneumatic, solid and tubeless tyres. That breadth helps explain why its headline valuation cannot simply be compared with a narrower study as though both researchers were measuring an identical product universe.
For manufacturers, distributors and investors, this makes an isolated market-size figure considerably less useful than it first appears. A forecast can still reveal assumptions about growth within a consistently defined market, but comparing headline values between research houses without examining their scope risks creating a false impression of precision.
The more interesting evidence is therefore what tyre manufacturers themselves are doing.
Bridgestone's strategy provides one significant signal, although an important distinction is required. The Japanese manufacturer is investing ¥25 billion at its Kitakyushu plant, its strategic global production base for mining and construction vehicle tyres, with the work scheduled for completion by the end of 2027.
The investment forms part of Bridgestone's strategy to strengthen an OTR business it identifies with its premium tyre operations and its wider emphasis on “value over volume”. But this is not a conventional capacity expansion. Bridgestone explicitly says production volume at Kitakyushu will remain at its current level because the investment is focused on upgrading existing equipment.
That distinction arguably makes the decision more interesting. Rather than simply adding tonnes to chase a growing market, Bridgestone is investing in production technology, quality, productivity and stable supply in a segment where tyre performance can have a substantial influence on equipment utilisation and operating economics.
BKT is approaching the opportunity with a more explicit growth ambition. In its May 2025 investor presentation, the Indian manufacturer said ongoing investment of 35,000 tonnes per annum combined with debottlenecking would increase its off-highway tyre capacity to 425,000 tonnes annually, supporting an ambition to reach an 8% global market share.
BKT also identified mining tyres as offering a “clear runway for accelerated growth”, while retaining a longer-term strategic goal of reaching 10% global market share through phased investment.
Taken together, the strategies illustrate why the OTR story cannot be reduced to a single global CAGR. One major producer is investing to reinforce a premium mining and construction franchise without increasing plant volume, while another is expanding off-highway capacity and pursuing market-share growth. Both are allocating capital to the sector, but their routes to value are different.
Mining provides one of the strongest structural arguments for continued OTR demand, particularly as electrification increases requirements for some critical minerals. Yet the outlook has become more nuanced during the past year.
The International Energy Agency's 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook says projected supply gaps for copper and lithium have narrowed as additional projects advance. It now sees an approximately 25% copper supply gap in 2035 based on the current project pipeline, compared with around 30% in its previous outlook.
At the same time, critical-mineral investment fell by 9% in 2025. The decline was heavily concentrated in battery materials, with lithium-focused companies cutting investment particularly sharply, while spending by copper-focused companies increased by 8%.
For the tyre industry, that is a reminder that long-term mineral demand does not translate mechanically into steadily rising OTR tyre demand. Mine development depends on commodity prices, financing, project approvals, operating economics and long lead times. Construction markets introduce their own economic and regional cycles.
The case for OTR investment therefore rests less on a simple assumption that “mining will grow” than on where equipment is operating, how intensively it is being used and what operators are prepared to spend to maximise productivity.
That has consequences further down the tyre supply chain. In high-value mining applications, purchase price is only one component of tyre economics. Service life, resistance to damage, equipment downtime, product availability and the ability to manage tyres effectively can all influence operating cost.
This creates a defensible position for premium manufacturers if measurable performance reduces cost per operating hour. It also creates an opening for challengers: a manufacturer able to demonstrate competitive whole-life performance can attack a segment where established brands have traditionally benefited from technology, service infrastructure and customer relationships.
For specialist distributors and OTR dealers, greater manufacturer competition can widen product choice while simultaneously making the business more demanding. Large and specialised tyres tie up working capital, and availability can be commercially critical when an immobilised machine is costing its operator money. Technical knowledge, field service and the ability to supply the correct product quickly can consequently matter as much as headline tyre pricing.
This is where manufacturer investment becomes a more useful indicator than the battle between competing market forecasts. Capacity expansion can increase competition and availability, but if supply grows faster than equipment utilisation and replacement demand, it can also create pricing pressure. Conversely, sustained mining and infrastructure activity alongside constrained specialist tyre supply would strengthen manufacturer pricing power and reward distributors capable of maintaining availability.
The global OTR sector therefore appears to have a credible growth case, but describing it as an US$5 billion, US$7 billion or US$27 billion market without explaining the definition says surprisingly little about the commercial opportunity.
Three indicators should provide a clearer picture over the next several years: manufacturer investment in OTR capacity and production technology, activity and utilisation across mining and construction equipment, and the operating economics being reported by end users.
If tyre investment rises alongside equipment activity and operators continue prioritising uptime, durability and cost per hour, manufacturers investing in premium technology and specialist capacity will have evidence that the market is supporting their commitments.
If capacity grows while mining investment, construction activity or equipment utilisation weaken, the story changes. The important numbers would then be less about forecast CAGR and more about factory utilisation, pricing and market-share pressure.
The research houses may continue disagreeing by billions over the size of the global OTR tyre market. Manufacturers do not have the luxury of treating it as a theoretical exercise. The capital they commit today will reveal where they believe tomorrow's margins can actually be earned.
Tags: OTR tyre market, OTR tyres, mining tyres, construction tyres, off-highway tyres, Bridgestone OTR, BKT tyres, mining tyre market, OTR market forecast, OTR tyre investment
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